In a nutshell
- The Problem: HIV/AIDS is one of the leading killers of adults worldwide. The virus weakens the immune system and ultimately leads to death (more here.)
- The Program: Condom promotion, through education, counseling and advertising, encourages the use of condoms. Condom distribution makes condoms readily available to individuals either for free or at highly subsidized prices.
- Track record: Condoms effectively prevent HIV transmission through sexual intercourse. The effectiveness of condom promotion and distribution programs is less clear.
- Cost-effectiveness: Condom promotion can be highly cost-effective, preventing a case of HIV/AIDS for $550-2,240, but costs vary widely along with the specific type of program implemented.
- Bottom line: Condom promotion and distribution is likely an effective program at preventing HIV infections, under the right conditions. However, the lack of a strong evidence base for this approach implies that donors should require relatively strong monitoring and evaluation from a charity working on this type of program.
Basics of the program
What is the program? What problem does it target?
HIV transmission occurs in three ways: (a) sexual intercourse, (b) exposure to infected blood, or (c) mother to child transmission through birth or breast milk. Sexual transmission is the primary transmission mechanism worldwide, and accounts for more than 90% of infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Condoms can prevent infection by reducing the likelihood of transmission during sexual intercourse. (More about HIV/AIDS here.)
What are the components required to implement this program - how does it work?
- Promotion. Condom promotion can be conducted in many ways. The most common forms are: (a) advertising in mass media (i.e., television, radio, newspapers); (b) school-based programs, in which students receive HIV/AIDS and condom information in classrooms; and (c) peer-based programs in which individuals are recruited and trained to provide information about HIV/AIDS and condoms to their peers.
- Distribution. Condoms may be freely distributed to target high-risk groups (as was the case in Thailand's 100% condom program - see below) or sold at subsidized prices through the private, retail sector (as Population Services International does).
Program track record
Micro evidence: Has this program been rigorously evaluated and shown to work?
There is strong evidence that condoms, when consistently used, reduce the likelihood of transmission. However, there is relatively weaker evidence that condom promotion and distribution programs result in increased condom use and consequently, reduced HIV/AIDS transmission.
Effectiveness of condoms when used consistently: An analysis was conducted of 14 studies including 4,709 participants. All participants were part of couples where one partner was infected with HIV and the other was not. The review compared cohorts of "always" users of condoms to "never" users and estimated that consistent condom use results in an 80% reduction in HIV incidence. Because the reviewed studies are not randomized controlled trials, the authors note that other factors may have caused the observed reduction in HIV transmission rates. Factors may have included (a) frequency of sexual activity (b) the fact that condom users are self-selected, which introduces other, unknown biases, or (c) rates of other risky behaviors, like drug use.
Effectiveness of condom promotion and distribution programs. The Disease Control Priorities Report lists 11 individual studies that resulted in increased condom use or reductions in HIV transmission. 10 of 11 studies found increased condom use and two of three (which measured HIV incidence) found reduced incidence. However, (a) many of these studies were not randomized controlled trials; (b) they often ran programs (e.g., one-on-one counseling about sexual behavior for study subjects every 3 months as seen in the Bentley 1998 study) that are not necessarily representative of programs implemented by NGOs more broadly; (c) many rely on self-reported condom use information; (d) many are focused on highly-specific groups of people (such as sex workers, featured in 5 of the 11 studies listed by the DCP) or means of provision (such as provision directly in motel rooms, as seen in the Egger 2000 study).
More on our interpretation of "micro evidence" and evaluation quality here.
Macro evidence: Has this program played a role in large-scale success stories?
Condom promotion and distribution has been credited with a number of large-scale, successful programs in the developing world to control HIV/AIDS. Below we summarize reports on Thailand (Levine 2007) and Uganda (WHO).
- Thailand: In 1991, Thailand implemented a nationwide condom program aiming for 100% condom use in sexual encounters with sex workers. According to Levine 2007, the program provided condoms free of charge, provided education and promotion of condoms, and carefully monitored incidences of sexually transmitted infections to identify locations that weren't in compliance with the initiative. Sexually transmitted infections fell significantly and reported condom use rates rose rapidly in response to the program.
- Uganda: Uganda experienced a significant decline in HIV infection rates after implementing a national HIV program. Although we have few specifics about the program itself, we know that in addition to condom promotion and distribution, the programs consisted of (a) "sex education programmes in schools and on the radio"; (b) a "social marketing scheme involving sales of condoms at subsidized prices or free distribution by both the government and the private sector"; (c) "condom use promotion among men who seek treatment for sexually transmitted infections"; and (d) "the launch in 1997 of same-day voluntary counselling and testing services."
Recommendations and concerns
Do expert reviews of the comparative merits of interventions endorse this one?
See this page for sources consulted.
- The Disease Control Priorities Report concludes that resources should be devoted to HIV prevention and care due to the "the magnitude and seriousness of the global pandemic." Nevertheless, the report doesn't strongly endorse this intervention in particular, stating "In the absence of firm data to guide program objectives, national strategies may not accurately reflect the priorities dictated by the particular epidemic profile, resulting in highly inefficient investments in HIV/AIDS prevention and care."
- The Copenhagen Consensus ranks "HIV Combination Package" as its 19th most cost-effective intervention.
- Jamison 2008 ranks "HIV: combination prevention" as it's 6th most cost-effective intervention to prevent disease, lower than DOTS and malaria treatment and prevention, including provision of ITNs.
What are the potential downsides of the intervention?
It is possible that increased condom promotion and distribution could lead to increased sex frequency and an increase in high-risk sexual activities. The Disease Control Priorities Report raises this concern and states that available data suggest that, "Sex education, including condom promotion, does not encourage or increase sexual activity (Kirby 2001)."
Cost-effectiveness
The Disease Control Priorities Report estimates costs at $52-$112 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted for this program type. This makes it a reasonably cost-effective program. (More on the DALY metric here.) Note that Population Services International estimates substantially lower costs per DALY for its own condom distribution programs, using what we find to be a relatively plausible methodology (details here).
Using a simple conversion calculation, we estimate that $52-$112 per DALY averted is equivalent to $1,020-$2,240 per HIV infection averted, while PSI's estimate comes in lower at ~$550 per HIV infection averted.
Sources
- Bentley, Margret E, et al. 1998. “HIV Testing and Counseling among Men Attending Sexually Transmitted Disease Clinics in Pune, India: Changes in Condom Use and Sexual Behavior over Time.” AIDS 12 (14): 1869–77. Available online at http://journals.lww.com/aidsonline/pages/articleviewer.aspx?year=1998&is..., accessed 7/7/09.
- Bhave, G, et al. 1995. “Impact of an Intervention on HIV, Sexually Transmitted Diseases, and Condom Use among Sex Workers in Bombay, India.” AIDS 9 (Suppl. 1): S21–30. Available online at http://www.popline.org/docs/1115/108473.html, accessed 6/30/09
- Copenhagen Consensus 2008. Accessed http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=953, accessed 6/30/09.
- Disease Control Priorities Project, Second Edition. 2006. Available for download online at http://dcp2.org/pubs/DCP, accessed 6/30/09.
- Egger, Matthias, et al. 2000. “Promotion of Condom Use in a High-Risk Setting in Nicaragua: A Randomised Controlled Trial.” Lancet 355 (9221): 2101–05.
- Jamison, D., Jha, P., and Bloom, D. 2008. Copenhagen Consensus 2008 Challenge Paper: Diseases. Available online at http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Files/Filer/CC08/Papers/0%20Challenge..., accessed 6/30/09.
- Laga, M., and Alary M. 1994. "Condom promotion, sexually transmitted diseases treatment, and declining incidence of HIV-1". Lancet 1994; 344:246-48. Available online at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7913164, accessed 6/30/2009
- Levine, Ruth. 2007. "Case 2: Preventing HIV and sexually transmitted infections in Thailand." In Millions Saved: Proven Success in Global Health. Available online at http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/millionssaved/studies/c..., accessed 6/30/09.
- Nagelkerke NJ, et al. 2002. "Plummer Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemics in Botswana and India: impact of interventions to prevent transmission." Bull World Health Organ. 2002;80(2):89-96. Available online at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11953786, accessed 6/30/09
- Weller SC, Davis-Beaty K. 2002. "Condom effectiveness in reducing heterosexual HIV transmission." Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2002, Issue 1. Art. No.: CD003255. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD003255. Available online at http://www.cochrane.org/reviews/en/ab003255.html, accessed 6/30/09
- WHO Success Stories in Developing Countries: Uganda Reverses the tide of HIV/Aids. Available online at http://www.who.int/inf-new/aids2.htm, accessed 6/30/09